Focusing on Our Galaxy
Space expansion seems feasible, and our galaxy is empty. These two things seem in tension. A similar tension – the question of why we see no signs of extraterrestrials, despite the galaxy having so many possible stars they could emerge from – is often discussed under the heading of the Fermi Paradox.
Wikipedia has a list of possible resolutions of the Fermi paradox. Many correspond to the skeptical view possibilities I list above. Some seem less relevant to this piece. (For example, there are various reasons extraterrestrials might be present but not detected. But I think any world in which extraterrestrials don’t prevent our species from galaxy-scale expansion ends up “wild,” even if the extraterrestrials are there.)
My current sense is that the best analysis of the Fermi Paradox available today favors the explanation that intelligent life is extremely rare: something about the appearance of life in the first place, or the evolution of brains, is so unlikely that it hasn’t happened in many (or any) other parts of the galaxy.
That would imply that the hardest, most unlikely steps on the road to galaxy-scale expansion are the steps our species has already taken. And that, in turn, implies that we live in a strange time: extremely early in the history of an extremely unusual star.
If we started finding signs of intelligent life elsewhere in the galaxy, I’d consider that a big update away from my current “wild” view. It would imply that whatever has stopped other species from galaxy-wide expansion will also stop us.
This pale blue dot could be an awfully big deal
Describing Earth as a tiny dot in a photo from space, Ann Druyan and Carl Sagan wrote:
The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that, in glory and triumph, they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot … Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the Universe, are challenged by this point of pale light … It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world.
This is a somewhat common sentiment – that when you pull back and think of our lives in the context of billions of years and billions of stars, you see how insignificant all the things we care about today really are.
But here I’m making the opposite point.
It looks for all the world as though our “tiny dot” has a real shot at being the origin of a galaxy-scale civilization. It seems absurd, even delusional to believe in this possibility. But given our observations, it seems equally strange to dismiss it.
And if that’s right, the choices made in the next 100,000 years – or even this century – could determine whether that galaxy-scale civilization comes to exist, and what values it has, across billions of stars and billions of years to come.
So when I look up at the vast expanse of space, I don’t think to myself, “Ah, in the end none of this matters.” I think: “Well, some of what we do probably doesn’t matter. But some of what we do might matter more than anything ever will again. …It would be really good if we could keep our eye on the ball. …[gulp]”
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